Last Man Standing . . . sort of

Anytime I watch the Republican presidential debate, or listen to the bickering that has turned into a media spectacle, I can’t help but wonder what any of the 4 remaining contenders will say to sway Americans against Obama in November.

Even among Republicans, you can imagine the tune that runs through many minds is the band U2’s hit song “I still haven’t found what I m looking for.”

Sooner or later, the Party will have to pick one of the “final 4”, and inasmuch many yearned for a more charismatic candidate, the Republican party will have to stick with the field it has been dealt. Chris Christie may have been a relatively pragmatic straight-shooter to mount a formidable campaign against the Obama machine, but many hard-line Republicans didn’t jump on the Christie train because he was a bit too moderate for their liking. Along the same lines however, Romney may be a bit “too rich” for some independents voters to connect with, and too stiff for Republicans, especially going toe-to-toe with an Obama who sings Al Green songs at White House press conferences. So Mitt Romney, as skillful and smart as he is [no denying that] still have to battle the stigma of being too out-of-touch for many independent voters.  

Ron Paul is Ron Paul. He will oppose everything and want freedom for everything. He is like the uncle you stopped inviting to family events because you know he will be there regardless, - no invitation necessary. And while he is there, he will speak his mind, even if no one is listening. Young people admire him because he gets their disdain for politics, although not enough to win their vote. Veterans adore him, although they know it will take more than social awareness campaign of the veteran plight to affect real policies.

Enter Rick Santorum, Most people have no clue who he is, and that is not a sentiment you change in 9 months to become president of the USA. Many are floating the idea that he is still in the race to ensure Gingrich doesn’t make a last minute game changer.

If Gingrich wins, the Obama guys will be pulling out the same blueprint that wiped out John McCain in 2008. We all know how that turned out for the old guy, the Washington insider, and the lifetime politician. Lest we forget, Gingrich is too unpredictable for Tea Party contingent.

One thing we know for certain is that the GOP will have to nominate and support a candidate sooner than later, and a win for Mitt Romney may be the end of a carousel that saw memorable moments like Herman Cain’s 999 policy, Rick Perry’s memory lapses, and Michele Bachman’s quest to be the second coming of Sarah Palin.

I have a feeling the Republican debates and war of words will drag on for a few more weeks, all of which gives President Obama more time to align the stars. So far, the president has sat back and enjoyed the ride; watched Republicans air their dirty laundry against each other. More importantly, he has enjoyed the added benefit if refining his answers for “failed promises” and an economic upturn just in time.

Tomorrow’s primary election Florida could be a game changer for all candidates, but if the outcome is as unpredictable as any of my buddy Herman Cain’s predictions, America will be in for a long election ride. Republicans on the other hand may be left grooving to John Mayer’s hit “Slow Dancing in a Burning Room.”

The Cost of Iran Oil Embargo

Sooner or later Iran will get the memo. President Ahmadinejad is bent on holding his ground in the face of a myriad of international sanctions being lashed out at the Middle Eastern country.  It often doesn’t take much for even the most hard-line leaders to feel the pinch of an embargo.

The only twist here is that Iran is betting on a potential global oil crisis as the deterrent to any real international pressure. Furthermore, from Iran’s point of view, demand for oil will exist elsewhere [Asia]; hence any shortfalls from US and EU will be offset by Asia’s growing demand.

For starters, oil prices rose above $110 right after the European Union jumped on the “sanction train” against Iran. The United States already stated its position on grinding Iran into submission, and at least the Obama administration is making it a priority to reduce America’s reliance on foreign oil supply. Shale gas and natural gas will fill some of the void – understandably so - but unless there is a real energy game changer like the Keystone XL (currently wrangling through a political tug of war),  countries like Iran will always have a voice in the matter.

The EU stance was critical especially since it is Iran's second-largest oil customer after China. However, the Chinese march to an entirely different tune, and so no one should be counting on them to abandon Iran anytime in this century.

For all the reasons above, we can expect the impact of the restrictions and embargo to affect market forces, with basic demand and supply curves shifting towards countries that can bear bilateral pressure, and for those whose economy cannot afford a reduction in oil supply.

Lest we forget, Iran is very aware of its key chess piece in this drama, - the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, it threatened to disrupt the activities of strategically important strait between the Gulf of Oman in and the Persian Gulf.  It is the only sea route for large petroleum-exporting tankers and a potential choke point the world cannot afford.

At the end of the day, it helps to focus on the big picture, and to know that the world is at a point of painful tradeoffs. No easy options.  My point, - there is an old adage “when elephant go to war, it is the grass that suffers the most.” The rest of the world might feel the pinch at the gas pump soon enough, but will averting a nuclear drama from an unpredictable Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be enough of a consolation prize?

Prokhorov’s Gamble

Americans can breathe a sigh of relief – at least it’s not the only country with politicians and politicians-wannabe jockeying for the top gig. Russia is the latest storyline to emerge, with

New Jersey Nets basketball team owner Mikhail Prokhorov declaring his intent to compete against Vladimir Putin, - the anointed one - next year.

For some odd reason, many people outside Moscow will think of this as a quasi-suicidal mission, especially in the face of all the constitutional hoops, aka reforms, that Putin had to go through to make himself eligible to run for the presidency.  Of course the very fact that one man is powerful enough to supposedly realign the stars in his favor is ample reason for others to be concerned with what Russia is turning into.

The third richest man is taking on a risky proposition, and he knows it. The underlying assertion being that Russian politicians are so crooked and sinister that it wouldn’t be farfetched to frame Prokhorov in a criminal circus and lock him away in jail forever. I have to admit, the more “Mission Impossible” movies I watch, the more I believe anything is indeed possible in Moscow and the Kremlin. But that is Hollywood’s spin, - perhaps with no bearing whatsoever on the reality.

The real questions is, what will make the Russia’s third richest man worth an excess of $18 billion - decide to take on a such low-paying privacy-invading thankless job?  I can’t imagine warren Buffet running for Mayor of Omaha, especially when he can simply blink and cause the world financial markets to panic.  

If you ever thought the United States, Greece, Spain or even Italy has issues; Russia has enough drama to make Kim Kardashian jealous. Of course there is a huge anti-Putin faction across Russia and elsewhere in the world, and they will love nothing more than see anyone other than Dmitry Medvedev or Vladimir Putin get the gig. But Mikhail Prokhorov?

Just last week, Putin's party was hit from all sides in the parliamentary elections, and many people are beginning to see windows of opportunity for a viable contender to emerge. Russian politics is shrouded in its own brand of conspiracy theories and suspicion, but it will take a little more than sheer popularity to outlast the Putin engine. He didn’t earn the nickname “the anointed one” for playing chess and shaking hands.

On a much lighter note, if I was Russian, I will like to see how Prokhorov win over Orlando Magic star Dwight Howard to the New Jersey Nets, before he earns any “street cred” for a deal maker.

Mikhail Prokhorov is taking a big gamble, but the Russians may be taking an even bigger gamble if there is no formidable contender in Moscow to face off with Putin. Someone has to do it, why not Mikhail Prokhorov?

World Aids Day - Getting to Zero

There is a good reason why December 1st of every year is World AIDS Day. Fair to say, it is far from a celebration; but rather an important reminder there is still a lot more to be done - individually and collectively -  in the face of one disease that has flipped the world on it head.

Thanks to advancements in science and technology, [plus all the often “corny” public awareness messages] perhaps the massage is hitting home.

Increased access to treatment is the centerpiece of the fight against HIV/Aids, but there is certainly no substitute for individual responsibility.

A trip down memory lane. . . a decade ago, the mere mention of the disease sent chills down many spines and forced people to reevaluate their own actions,- sexually, that is. The rest of us were urged to get tested, “know your status”, and by all means advised to act responsibly. Back then the fear of death was enough to force a social consciousness and awakening.

Fast-forward to 2011, - momentum has fizzled and the only people who seem to care about HIV/Aids are the people living with HIV/Aids. Human memory is fickle, and sooner or later, even fear fizzles.

My point? We cannot afford to forget. Collectively, we do not have the luxury of toning down the public awareness messages and flaming the stereotypes .

World AIDS Day this year is about "Getting to Zero." Zero New HIV Infections. Zero Discrimination and Zero AIDS-Related Deaths.

Aggressive? Sure. Optimistic? You bet. Unrealistic? Well, the UN can’t put a bullet to anyone’s head to manage his/her actions. There are some elements that can be monitored and managed, - AIDS-related maternal deaths, and universal access to antiretroviral therapy for people living with HIV, among others. When it comes down to individuals however, all anyone can do is to hope and encourage society to not lose sight of the risks and reality.

The world is a long way from “Zero”, but it certainly doesn’t hurt to dream of “Getting” there.

Spread the word.  Get tested.

Most importantly, act responsibly.

The Sum of All Fears. .

I saw this train coming down the tracks long ago. I didn’t need a high school diploma to make economic predictions, at least in the face of the drama in Euroland. 

Sooner or later the European Union was going to turn East. Unless you’ve been happily hiding under a rock, everyone knows that with Greece and Italy dragging the rest of Europe along into its economic mess, it was only a matter of time before they went to the one source they would rather avoid. China, that is. 

Knocking on China’s door comes with strings attached, and that is where anyone will imagine Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel scratching their chins.

Every economic historian will point out that China’s rise to stardom occurred through some radical reforms and not-so-admirable antics. The West spent the past 50 years criticizing the Chinese for their disregard for individual freedoms and many aspects of free enterprise. The Chinese didn’t budge, haven’t budged and with the global financial landscape heading to hell in a hand basket, the Chinese are unlikely to rethink their strategy. The only trouble is that the Chinese economic landscape is riddled with humanitarian landmines, well documented and criticized.

China is the largest holder of foreign currency reserves in the world with more than $3 trillion in its secret stash. Even more, the Chinese economy is growing fast, whiles others are still struggling to make sense of debts and fiscal mismanagement. With Europe begging for salvation from Beijing, the Chinese have every right to think “who’s laughing now?”

The United States in their part has done well by hooking its economic engine to the Chinese train. That’s a conversation worth its own blog, but at least it still maintained its dignity and leverage with market size and spending power. The African countries hitched onto this train long ago. The EU will do anything at this juncture to save the lingering gloom.

 Not so fast. . .

You can bet Chinese President Hu Jintao will be asking what’s “in it” for him. It’s one thing bailing out a wobbly company, or even a country. It’s an entirely different ball game trying to nudge a trade bloc or customs union to act. While China will be the logical savior of the European crisis, there is still a school of thought that feared this day.

Of course there are many people who dislike that thought of the world sitting at China’s feet. The world can only whine, bark and cry at any geopolitical or economic issues it crosses hairs with, - but can’t do “diddly squat” about it. That’s the crux of the fear but the West has itself to blame, but perhaps the West has had its time to bask in the sun. 

The next decade promises to be interesting and tricky, but one thing we know for certain is that the sun will be rising from the East.

Friends with Benefits

An almost mistaken notion that has floated in many economic circles in the United States is the assertion that US economic survival hinges on China’s success. True, - except that there is another side to that coin. China’s and the Asia Pacific region’s economic success is equally stuck to the hip of the US economy.

The moral of the story, - both countries will be well served to - not only acknowledge - but embrace this vital interdependency rather than going to war over currency manipulations and trade tactics to “have their cake, and eat it too.” In the end, no one wins, and both trading partners are too busy fighting over who will flood global markets with short-term economic gains.

If I was a fly on the wall at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit this past weekend, that is the underlying storyline I will be dying to hear. Through no fault of theirs, the United States general public equates China and Asian economies as the parasite to domestic success. Outsourcing and offshoring of manufacturing jobs have taken their toll, especially in cities and starts that previously boasted of assembly lines and manufacturing jobs.  But no one took the time to explain the dynamic of the global markets and the role of technology in modern society.

The times changed, - globalization opened markets and gave access to cheaper labor, efficient business models and huge potential profits. Every country has had to rethink its value proposition and rethink its international service offerings. As you would expect in a world where trade ad international business is gradually turning into a mutually exclusive battle ground, - there will be winners and losers. 

It helps to let both sides understand that just as the United States presents a ready-made market for most products and services, Asia Pacific brings the world's second-largest economy to the table. Economic theory therefore suggests that both entities stand to gain, as long as both are not going to war over the same market share. Welcome to the future; - the name of this game will be innovation, - end of story.  

If there is any hope for win-win economic gains, it will start with cooperation, sustained growth and long-term relationships based on mutual interests, rather that smokescreens and protectionist barriers. For the US, APEC is the friendship that is turning out to be vital to its growth – and job creation.  In his own remarks, President Obama sees any connection with Asia as a chance to “increase trade, spur innovation, promote ‘green growth’ and ease barriers to travel and interactions.” I admit my naivete and economic delusions, but I have a feeling the sentiment is no t too different from the other side.

The operative world is fairness. As long as there is mutual benefit and all countries get their fair share in export revenue, most economic onlookers will nudge the US ease the pressure on their Asian counterparts especially and allow free market forces to lead the way. 

But [and there is a big “but”] for that to work, the Chinese especially, will have to hold their end of the bargain with currency devaluation and protection for intellectual property rights.

Either way, this is a classic case of “friends with benefits”, - there will always be secrets and suspicion.

Just a thought.