The Final EXIT

I don’t need to be anywhere near Baghdad to know that the US troops are happy (as hell) to be heading out of Iraq. Well, it’s a mutual sentiment (at least on the surface) because the Iraqi’s are itching to take over running their own show. Today marks the beginning of the end, with troops leaving the major cities in Iraq as promised by President Obama.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that all American troops will leave their temporary homes since 2001, but you can at least make the argument that the symbolic gesture in itself is a long time coming. Finally, former President Bush can go to sleep without having to hear his name tied to a war which made him one of the most popular (and unpopular) people in the world. I am in no position to judge President Bush’s original intent for hauling out Saddam Hussein or shifting the war agenda from Afghanistan.
Furthermore, I am one of those people who still think that no matter how controversial the Iraq war has been, there is no telling what it saved us all from, and there will be absolutely no way to justify that argument. The blame game carousel will go on for many years to come, but at least today will the day United States washed its hand off one of the most expensive military expeditions in history. For the sake of clarification, today’s exit is also in line with the security agreement that Bush's administration signed with pre-Obama. I thought I mention that, especially for all the people who cant wait for another chance to take a swipe at Bush.
The past few days saw some bombings in Iraqi streets, but even an idiot could have speculated those series of events with a fair level of accuracy. Of course, there are ‘insurgents’ who will love nothing more than President Obama extending the pull-out timetable, and blame it of instability ‘on the ground’. Extremists will do almost anything to push their agenda, so that they can buttress their case that the United States has no real intent to exit Iraq. The responsibility of stabilizing Iraq will fall squarely in the Iraq's security forces, although the US troops will remain in the shadows in intelligence and ‘advisory’ roles. Frankly, I knew the US troops could not afford to erect permanent settlements in Iraq, but the thought of a withdrawal without a clear victory banner was a little tricky to fathom.

The way forward will be somewhat unpredictable, just as much as it could be promising. For the Iraqi’s, this will be their chance to show the world that they are indeed capable of 21st century sovereignty, militarily and politically. Their success could potentially be a roadmap (except the 8 years part of course) for Afghanistan. On the other side of the tracks, it is no secret that the United States still has a long way to go for the foreign policy damage control, but at least this will be a nice start to say that we did what we said we will do. The issue of who won or who lost is completely irrelevant, because there is probably no fair value for any life lost in the trenches of war.
Around Baghdad, people are dancing and jubilating on what is become a special holiday, declared the National Sovereignty Day. Of course the partying is the easiest part of the equation, but the real job starts tomorrow when the Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki’s Sunni and Shia forces have to worry about where the next roadside blast will come from.
I remain cautiously optimistic, but genuinely elated to see the symbolic handover; no matter how much of it is face value and political propaganda.
Just another random thought.

Trading Spaces: Destination Africa

BETTER late than never. The Chinese read the signs on the wall and headed to Africa decades ago. Epiphany kicked in for the rest of the Western world in 2007 and more and more leaders are finding the ‘dark continent’ not so dark anymore. It was almost a month ago when Barack Obama stood in Cairo to address the Muslim world, and I am sure only a few people paused to wonder why Egypt? Why not Saudi Arabia, Yemen or Syria? I know I am usually delirious, but you can bet no one sat in the White House flipped coins to see where the next official visit should be, and it landed on Egypt. Safe to say that there is some strategy involved in all of this.
In a few days, President Obama will be heading to Ghana perhaps as part of the ‘extending our hand anyone who will unclench their fist’ tour. Well, since the mid 1960’s, Ghana hasn’t have anything worth clenching fists over, except that in the past few years stumbled into huge oil deposits along its shores. For the record, I am in no way suggesting that President Obama is visiting the West African nation simply to work oil deals, but that is a fascinating coincidence nonetheless. The more admirable reason will be to applaud the Ghanaian transition and apparent embrace of democracy. Then again, that is the least suspicious part of my brain speaking.
As I write this, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is on his first visit to Africa, heading a 400-strong business delegation to Nigeria, Namibia, Angola and Egypt. Of course, the Russians make no bones about their economic intentions in Africa. Globalization and global interdependence may have sparked this renewed interest in the African continent but I am not sure how many Africans will revisit the colonial nostalgia, and ask why now, and why here? Either way the Russians are hoping to carve into the Chinese action, and the Americans better get in the action before its too late. Makes sense though, I think.

Somehow the Russians figured out that there still exist a vast land of natural resources which the Africans are sitting around dancing on (no pun intended), and what perfect way to get into the action than show up with your business wise guys? Swarming Africa with investment deals is not unheard of. The Chinese anticipated this trend two decades ago, and proceeded to make friends with every African country from Mali to Sudan. The last time Russia took any genuine interest in Africa, it was the Cold War. Harry Truman and the famous Truman doctrine became the only obstacle for the Russians in turning Africa into a communist continent. Fair to say that the times have changed, and the United States evened the playing field but the uninteresting coincidence is watching the leaders of the two key nations take turns hanging out in Africa.

Years ago, the very mention of Africa did illicit images of civil war and the tail end of human civilization. Somewhere along the line, the oil and energy companies of the West discovered what the Chinese had figured out a long time ago, - that the African story is just as complex as it is promising. Any insinuation of Western interests to the famous ‘scramble for Africa’ is an overexaggeration, but not completely unjustified.
Spin it anyway you want, but it is the ‘promise’ of economic resuscitation that is reshaping the African agenda and the sudden appeal to the rich and the powerful.

1958-2009

If it was just about the shock of death, Michael Jackson’s sudden departure would be a drop in an ocean. My best guess is that it is the magic of his talent, the unimaginable legacy in music and the colorful trails of personalities that have sent the entire world into sympathy mode. On behalf of the Random Thoughts family, our collective sympathies go to the Jackson family, but most importantly we hope that the rest of us will not lose sight of the how many lessons MJ’s life has taught all of us.
Before I get on my ‘give roses to people while they are alive’ rant, there is no question that the undisputable ‘King of Pop’ has lived well, and probably lived life for a few people. So much of his accomplishments and his experiences, many of us can only dream of, and still cannot fathom its entirety. Lets face it, over the last decade alone, there have been millions of people taking turns in using Michael Jackson as a social punching bag, only to show up today in tears and flowers. In the past 3 hours alone, I had 36 text messages reminding me to pray for Michael Jackson’s family. Well, I will do that, but where were all these people when MJ needed prayers to live. Five years ago, half of America was itching to fry him, and it is almost amazing the way society jumps ships and switch sides. A little to their defense, MJ was a little complicated.
I wasn’t around when Elvis Presley died (or probably I didn’t care too much about him), but the images and documentaries seeks to remind all of us of the lives they led, and the incredible impact they had on people. Even when MJ became somewhat a freakish figure, a child seemingly trapped in a man’s body, and his voice got just as light as his skin, he never lost that soft spot he had in many people’s hearts. Maybe in Michael Jackson’s death, all of us will wake up to the reality that we won’t live forever, and instead of spending precious time whining about our shortcomings, start thinking about our legacy. Save the empathy, because MJ will be resting in a better place, and in peace.
Of course, I am old enough to know that this is human nature, the ultimate flip flopping creatures ever to walk the face of the earth. One minute, ready to hang you upside down, and the very next minute eager to crown you king. Mark my words, every camera hungry celebrity in America will show up this weekend to pay their respects to MJ, and tell the world how much of a wonderful person he was. Just out of curiosity, where were all these people when MJ was scraping for cash to save Neverland Ranch and his sanity? That was a rhetoric question anyway.
I am not in the business of making deductions, but perhaps one of the interesting coincidences here is that MJ only lived half a century. It is hard to imagine how much work he had put into living over five decades, and also how much stress he has endured in that same time span. Sure he had his share of scandals and wild moments, and to a large extent, anyone who thinks Michael brought some of the ridicule upon himself won’t be completely mistaken. For whatever it is worth, all of us have our share of drama, and MJ seemed to at least found ways to clean his mess. At the time of his death, he was preparing for what would have been his greatest comeback, 50 shows in London. You can bet every one of those fans who bought a ticket won’t be asking for their money back, ever.

The unfortunately sideswiped story however is 12 hours ago, Farrah Fawcett’s death was the big story. It was heartbreaking just listening to her ordeal leading up to her death, and no one could have imagined that in just a few hours, the world would forget about her that quickly. In a matter of hours, every television network, radio station, newspaper and blog is about Michael Jackson. Fair to say that MJ was the biggest celebrity in the world,(larger than life almost) but in this tragedy, we find ourselves a ruthless reminder of how fragile life really is. The real question here is how much of an impact the rest of us plan to make with our own lives?
MJ’s sudden death is a shocker; I guess due to our assumption that the most interesting people will live forever. In 1982, ‘Thriller’ made an unprecedented entry into the hearts of many around the world, so much that in 2009, there were prison inmates in an Indonesian jail learning the dance moves. This weekend will be filled with tributes, endearing and emotional words on every television screen (including Telemundo and Al-Jazeera), but who can question the media’s quest to milk this tragedy for all the juice it can provide. Every entrepreneur is scheming on what will be the most catchy picture to slap on a $12 Michael Jackson T-shirt, so pardon me if I dislike opportunists parading as sympathizers.
‘We are the World’ and Heal the World’ may very well become the United Nations’ signature tune, and for that alone, the world owes Michael Jackson a moment of silence. R.I.P. Jacko.

Disappearing Act(or)

SOUTH CAROLINA Governor Mark Sanford is a funny dude, and it has nothing to do with his appearance on the Colbert Report. I am not the best judge of character but Mark Sanford usually wears one of those suspicious looks of people who you are almost tempted to ask what clandestine move they’ve been up to. There are two stories woven into one here, both equally amusing and disappointing.
The crux of the story is that the governor disappeared for five days, and no one knew the truth about where he was. That is a little unsettling considering the fact that the only reason why we vote Governors are that they will be available all the time, to run the state affairs no matter how trivial. Yes I get the fact that politicians are humans too, they need a time out just like any of us, but certainly not a Chuck Norris style Missing in Action. He lied to his staff, apparently claimed to be hiking the Appalachian Trail when he was busy ‘handling his business’ somewhere in Argentina. The man is an international ‘playa’, what can I say? Mark Sanford gave multitasking a whole new meaning.
Then there is the affair part of the story.
Remember when Mark Sanford was a Congressman, he was in favor of impeaching Bill Clinton for his ‘bj’ scandal in the oval office. According to reliable sources, Sanford cited ‘moral legitimacy’ in Bill Clinton’s case, and why wild Bill shouldn’t be allowed to hold public office. It is funny how the world spins around and by some coincidence, some of the self-righteous people find themselves dancing to the same tunes they loathed just a few moments earlier. I couldn’t help it but go holy on this one (the gospel of Matthew I think), a warning about removing the speck in your eye before you do for your neighbor (something along that line). Myesha thinks this is a classic case of ‘if you live in a glasshouse, don’t throw stones’, but I have to say Mark Sanford didn’t have a clue where he would be living when he threw a rock at Bill Clinton. South Carolinians may be one of the most forgiving groups of Americans, and I have a sneaky suspicion that Elliot Spitzer would have kept his job if he didn’t live in New York. After all the mess, his wife said Mark Sanford has ‘earned a chance to resurrect their marriage’. What the *&*$%? I am no expert in crisis management, but if Jenny Sanford is anything like the rest of the people in South Carolina, I think all of us should reconsider a relocation program immediately. All jokes aside, I have no plan of cheating on my wife someday, neither do I have any inclinations to run for Governor, but that does not give me any moral mandate to walk around passing judgment. Politicians forget (sadly so) that they are human and just as fallible as the next guy.
Then there is the kicker; - Mark Sanford was one of the names flying around as giving Obama a run for his money in 2012 (together with Sarah Palin of course). Well, not in this lifetime. For starters, I don’t want a president who will vanish when North Korea starts talking trash, or even worse when the infamous phone rings at 3am. Furthermore, Americans criticized John McCain (who I personally think is a sharp guy) for being erratic, but Mark Sanford takes erratic to a new low. What I find a little hard to understand about politicians is how they assume that they will get away with anything (including murder), when they are the first people to pick out of any line up. Maybe having power and authority sooner or later alters the protons in a man’s brain, and dilutes their perception of reality.
I am not one of the people to blame political figures for not measuring up to the moral benchmarks of society, because ultimately those standards are bogus anyway. I don’t expect to be blogging about this story again, but this is another new chapter in the long list of the political ironies, and scandals that expose politicians for the mortals they truly are.
Mark Sanford is a funny dude, nonetheless.

The Number 1 'Stunnas'

United States 2 - Spain 0. No way! Oh yes anything is indeed possible. The Spanish are stunned. The United States punched their ticket into Sunday's final of the 2009 FIFA Confederations Cup. Two hours ago, no one in their right frame of mind would pick United States to beat the #1 ranked team in the world. CONGRATULATIONS won't even do any justice, but one thing that was certain is that momentum has a lot to do with how a team bounces back in the face of an impossible feat. No matter what happens with the likely Brazil match up in the final, this shocking upset against Spain will be just fine. For Spain, all good things must come to an end, today is not a bad day for that to happen.
The United States have done the unthinkable, but I still assert (from my previous blog) that it will take a divine intervention for Michael Jackson to become anything close to black.
Of course, the United States will have a lot to build on going into the World Cup next year, but even the biggest 'hater' in the world will admit that this is an excellent start. The Spanish oppression on the soccer field will come to an end, and the hands of an unlikely matchup. What a story?

The American Dream

THE PREMISE of this dream is simple; - there is a FIFA Confederations Cup tournament underway in South Africa, and for the most part it is the final dress rehearsal leading up to next year’s World Cup. United States will find out just how much they really are ready at the international soccer level this afternoon when they face a Spanish side that just can’t seem to lose. Ever since the European Championships two years ago, no country has found the winning formula (yet) to squash the Spanish pride. United States is next in line.
First things first, the miracles (or the shockers) over the past two weeks in South Africa have been plenty so far, and I think it is safe to say that there are no more of those in the horizon. New Zealand was spanked by every team, no surprise there. Iraq gave teams a run for their money, but ultimately a strong-will can only take you so far on a soccer pitch. How the Italians eliminated themselves is a jawdropper of epic proportions. After showing off their newfound New Jersey born superstar Rossi, the Brazilian team showed them just how much fluff all the star-studded Italian job was. Italy lost 3-0, and by some wild surprise (miracle almost), United States beat Egypt 3-0. Now, that is where I pause for a moment and hit the ‘rewind’ button. Fair to say Egypt and Italy chose the wrong day to play their worst, but such is the nature of international competitions. The end result was that the United States team advanced to the semi-final, and that is a dream.
Now to the reality. United States lost 3-1 to Italy, and 3-0 to Brazil in the opening stages. I like to think their engines are clicking now, but I hate to raise my hopes too high only to have them dashed in 90 minutes. I have to admit that I have a soft place in my heart for the US coach Bob Bradley, except that the team is made up of a few promising stars and a bunch of other people who needs to be sitting home watching ESPN.
Call it what it is, but the sooner the United States soccer fans get over Landon Donavan, the sooner they will find themselves with a real playmaker who can send the team into any relevance. I am of the opinion that at some point, we need to throw out the textbook soccer strategies and get down dirty with people who can really stand up toe to toe with likes of Kaka, Ronaldo, and Ronaldino. Every country is busy breeding new stars, and ‘looking pretty’ is no prerequisite here. If no one wakes up to the fact that the days of tough Alexi Lalas and workehorse Cobi Jones are long gone, next summer will be an embarrassment. Just in case you think I’m just venting, two months ago, Costa Rica handed the US team a heavy spanking, and that was almost too bad for TV. Every soccer fan assumed that we had seen the end of Donavan, Beasley, Altidore and the rest of the guys just occupying space and wasting a US jerseys. Needless to say I’m no big fan of some of these guys, but that is as objective as I get.
A new breed of stars can show up, given the opportunity of course. Charlie Davies, Bradley, Specter, and at some point Freddy Adu too. This is America, if the country can land a man on the moon, certainly it can produce a World Cup winning team. Well, that’s apples and oranges but at least you get my argument. Enough of that.

This afternoon’s game will be the best and most accurate measurement of the Unites States national team, and how they could potential fare next summer at the biggest stage of all (assuming they make it there). Losing woefully to Italy and Brazil had the US team heading for a brutal reception here at home, but the miracle in Bloemfontein, beating Egypt has revived hope and at least saved the humiliation. Spain didn’t become the best team in the world by hanging out on the soccer field. 35 games unbeaten and that is the perfect country to measure where you stand on the world stage. I don’t want to go as far as to imagine a Spanish slaughter session, but something like a Spanish invasion is inevitable. No excuses here, nothing at all the United States squad has all the momentum (and the righteous wind) going their way so the only thing holding them back will be another Clint Dempsey midfield breakdown. Remember this, Spain is not are forgiving as Egypt, and if you are not convinced, ask New Zealand team how they lost 5-0.
In a matter of hours, the real test will begin. Nothing against US national team but I am a business man who is not fond of losing, so I will give Spain an edge in this one. For the first time, there is such a thing as a decent loss, but to assume that the lopsided US team will stop the Spanish winning ways is like saying Michael Jackson will be a black man again. The only hope is that the American dream won’t turn into an American nightmare.
A random thought.

The Tipping Point

LET the so-called Middle East experts tell it, this is Iran’s dejavu,- 1979 all over again. Back then the people of Iran were ticked off at an absolute monarch trying to force Western-style modernization on a conservative population. Fast forward thirty years down the line, an ‘ultra-conservative’ government allegedly rigged an election and the disgruntled Iranian people won’t back down.
Thirty years ago, the factions weren’t too difficult to identify, and in fact many people in the Middle East leaned on the side of the status quo. I guess the stark difference here is that with every child and woman marching in the streets protesting against the election results from two weeks ago, it is almost impossible to map out where this crisis is heading.
My best guess? A complex resolution from the political trifecta. Of course this is all speculation. It is entirely possible that Ahmadinejad stays in office, but his power and consequent mandate is significantly diminished. Then, Hossein Mousavi waits in the sidelines and watches Ayatollah Khamenei pull the strings in Iran for another four years, all in the name of peace and solidarity.
It is difficult to anticipate where this is all heading, and although I do not foresee an election do-over, Tehran is fast become a symbol of the changing dynamics in the Middle East. Nothing at all, Ahmadinejad will have to change his tactics significantly, assuming he manages to remain at the helm, because taunting nuclear weapons won’t cut it any more. Call me an idiot, but there are some glaring realities and interesting undertones here. First, Israel next door is watching the post-election fallout in Iran as the critical sign that a relatively moderate, objective and pragmatic generation may be born out of all this chaos. Then there is the Obama extending an arm to any nation who will ‘unclench their fist’ inaugural speech; - which forces the Iranian masses to want a piece of the pie. There is also the Arab League and the Crown Princes of the region who are sitting back wondering if their days of unquestioned loyalty are indeed numbered.
Sure, there could be semblances to 1979, in fact all riots are similar, but there are no Shahs in this equation. President Ahmadinejad is living with the harsh reality that the people in Iran are no longer prepared to sit back and watch from the sidelines, and Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Khamenei found out that a Friday prayer session is not enough to appease a pissed off, fed up citizenry. Maybe Iranians have been pushed too far, and this election is the moment that tipped them over the edge. There exists a viewpoint that perhaps the Ayatollah’s and his buddies are perhaps out of touch with the changing realities in the world, never mind the fact that they don’t know the power of MySpace and Twitter.

The logic of any argument is that any leader or system can push its people for so long, until the moment where you push them over the edge and set the status quo ablaze. I won’t go as far as saying that Iran is falling apart, but at some point the key players will have to choose which side they will want to belong, and that is where it gets tricky. Pardon me for ignoring the obvious anti- Ahmadinejad protests in the USA; - I am not too interested in listening to Iranian-wannabes marching in Los Angeles and New York, thousands of miles from the front lines, but carefully weaving their personal agendas into a national crisis. Slapping green ribbons and scarves on your head and painting your cheeks green doesn’t make anyone Iranian, instead at some point real grievances turn into propaganda.
Two weeks ago, if anyone said Iranians will take the streets in defiance over election results that would have been the craziest thought ever conceived. No matter what school of thought you belong, I have consistently maintained my same argument, that something of unprecedented proportion is happening in the Middle East, and the Iranian crisis is the trailer to this thriller.

A random thought.

The iPhone Factor

SO MUCH for recession. The very fact that Apple sold over 1 million new iPhones in a weekend is not an accident, and certainly not an isolated incident. That alone is enough to reassure the rest of the world that consumer spending is in full swing. Confidence is the fuel that keeps the economic engine turning, and as long as people are willing to fork 350 bucks for a cell phone (which most don’t need anyway), that may be a good indicator that we crept out of the woodwork, and are getting back to our old ways, again.
The only significance of the iPhone in the big economic picture is that for a luxury product to even look remotely appealing to a recession-shaken consumer, the fears of economic downswing must no longer exist. On several fronts, this is good news for Steve Jobs, just as much ass it is for President Obama, although the real champagne popping moment will start if GM and Chrysler can sell a million units ( of anything) in a year. But that is an entirely different conversation.
I have no pressing desire to buy an iPhone anytime soon (simply because my Blackberry works just fine), but I will be foolish to explain the sales numbers with American consumer vanity and our chronic itch to amass gadgets. Somewhere in the fluff, there are tech gurus making sure they whet consumer appetite and that the luxury image of the iPhone doesn’t become a fading trend.
I know a few people who love anything Apple (my friend Marc lives on top of that list) from the over 50,000 applications available from the App Store, and fair to assume that there is a good reason for it. The bottom-line, something seeks to suggest that the fundamental ingredients to shifting the demand or supply curve in any product still holds true. A quality product with fancy applications (no matter the price tag) will somehow find its way to its intended customer. Why is that important? Well, in post-recession America, millions of companies are desperately lingering in panic mode and Uncertainty Boulevard in an attempt to find the perfect combination to maintain their competitive edge. Steve Jobs and Apple just gave us another reason to believe that the same fundamental economic determinants are still the way to go.

Nothing at all, 1 million new iPhones sold in a weekend is an interesting phenomenon. If I was in the soothsaying business, this is where I assure my clients that the economic good times are on the verge of rolling again. I hope I am right.

Next in Line?

Who can blame Ford if it shows up next week in Washington to get its share of the TARP cash? You can argue that the bailouts for Chrysler and GM may have given those two a competitive advantage (to a large extent) over Ford, and if the government wants to play fair, it will have to at least listen to their grievances.
There are people making a strong case that the bankruptcies may actually resurrect both Chrysler and General Motors, I am one of those. If that works, my optimistic nature says its will, I don’t necessarily think that Ford will end up getting the short end of the stick. From what I know, Ford built its cash reserves not through profits, but by mortgaging most of the company's assets before the credit crisis of 2008 cut off funding for the other automakers. The other side is that The TARP isn’t a freebie, neither is bankruptcy a badge of honor, so the fact that the Ford wise guys haven’t showed up to ask for Obama’s help doesn’t necessarily put them in a bad spot.
It wouldn’t take anything more than college algebra to do the math here;- Ford is about $32 billion in debt now, while GM will have about $17 billion, and Chrysler about $11 billion in debt, when all this bankruptcy dust settles. It is also fair to assume that Ford still have some of the same wacky organizational practices which sent its two competitors tumbling down the main street. Did it learn its lessons from the auto-bubble? Maybe so. But if the next few months turn out to be the other side of the reality, don’t be surprised to see Ford Motor company banging on Obama’s door to get their chunk of the stimulus check.
The point of the story is that no one knows what lies ahead, and that is precisely what makes this somewhat close to a suspense, but scary movie. I hope I am wrong, but call me a genius when Ford is next in line in the coming months at the Obama auto rescue center.

Iran: A Shady Aftermath

The very fact that we are still sitting here talking about Iranian elections almost a week after the election itself (no matter how fraudulent), seeks to add to the changing tide in the Middle East. Gone are the days when a totalitarian government (even quasi-dictators) held power unquestionably and the citizens played their roles in allowing the status quo to prevail.
As far as I am concerned, there is no way for anyone to know (without a shadow of a doubt) that Hossein Moussavi won the elections hands down. The fact of the matter still remains that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad don’t seem to have too many friends on this side of the street, and that makes him the de facto crook in this scenario.
It is fair to assert some shenanigans in the high stakes elections, but I am not automatically joining the ‘foul-play’ bandwagon only on the premise that thousands of people are marching through Tehran in displeasure.
Let’s call a spade a spade, - elections are one of those undemocratic features of a true democracy. It is a zero sum game that assumes that the winner has a mandate of the people (including those who detest him to the bone) to rule. Consequently, a loss is a bitter pill to swallow, especially when the winds of ‘change’ are blowing all over the world, thanks to Obamamania. The demonstrators (mostly young people) are demanding that officials throw out the results of the balloting that kept hard-line incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in power.
Well, that is where it gets a little tricky. It would be nice if this was a simple case of pressing Ctrl + Alt+ Del simultaneously and starting from scratch. How do you convince Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s supporters (never mind Ahmadinejad himself) that he didn’t win? If it was that easy, Al Gore would have pulled it off in Florida when he had all the fact sserved to him buffet-style like in Panda Garden Chinese restaurant. There is a school of thought that will do anything to convince us that the apparent Western media bias stems directly from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s past behaviors (rightfully so perhaps), but that is also tied to the assumption that the Western media naively thinks Hossein Moussavi is Jesus Christ.
The last time I checked, thanks to Christiane Amanpour (the only person who seems to know what she is talking about), the Guardian Council was meeting behind close doors, and that could mean several things. No matter what the agenda is, it is reasonable to assert that the public protests and the watching world have shaken the foundations of an entrenched socio-cultural system. There are people who would love to hear United States say something ‘smart’ or stupid so that they will jump on Obama for inciting a coup in Iran. For that alone, I applaud the US government taking a backseat and watching the post-election events unfold on TV just like everyone else, and let the Iranians clean up their own mess. For instance, no one is criticizing Nicolas Sarkozy or Gordon Brown for not ‘speaking out’, and that is because Britain and France and just about every other country in the world knows what it means to mind their own business.

Democracy and freedom is on the line here, and you can bet the rest of the Middle East are watching how the century old structures of Imams and Ayatollahs crumble in the face of neo-cultural opposition, probably something that would become a blueprint for the rest of the region. Of course, the longer you watch CNN and FOX News, the sooner you will convince yourself that all Iranians are anti- Ahmadinejad. The logic is intimately connected to the iReports and Twitter messages coming out from, and around Tehran. I believe that the underlying story that many people miss is that the Iranian election spelled an interesting divide between a generation of customs, old-school traditions and status quo versus the generation X, Y and Z. Safe to say, you don’t expect an 80 year old hard-line conservative to get on MySpace to vent about anything.
One thing we know for certain, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could be the key to resolve this fiasco, but I think that at the end of the day, no hardliner will see their well entrenched institution of pseudo-democratic tyranny go down without a fight. That is every bit of bad news for Moussavi, but the silver lining in this chaos will remain that the protests and mini-uprising is a glaring warning of the changing dynamic in Iran, and through the Middle East.
How the chips fall from here is anyone’s guess but I have a sneaky suspicion that the Iranians will eventually ‘chalk-it-up’ as one of those crushing setbacks and hope the next four years will be a lot less dramatic.
Another random thought of course.

Random Wisdom

Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense. Under the clouds of war, it is humanity hanging on a cross of iron.

- Dwight Eisenhower

Healthcare; - ‘All about the Benjamins’

It is entirely possible that all of us are sick (at least to some extent), and President Obama has a plan to save us all. The other end of the spectrum is also probable, - that President Obama is completely delirious to want to turn America into Canada or England. Well, for argument’s sake, those countries are not necessarily bad places for fall sick, except that healthcare and government bureaucracy is the same sentence is nothing close to paradise.
Overhauling the United States’ healthcare would require a dose of corporate selflessness, ingenuity and a divine miracle. The concerns of doctors (however unfounded) are that any such drastic reforms will bring a government-heavy system that dictates how patients get treated and how much physicians get paid. Then there is the drug companies, the pink elephant in the room, and I am yet to meet one utterly clueless person who thinks drug manufacturers are in this conversation for our well being. Sitting on the sidelines are 46 million (I think a lot more) people uninsured in America and that picture has tragedy written all over it.
The fact remains that in the same way that Obama is looking at the current healthcare system as a dire problem, insurance companies see a golden opportunity looming their way.
All these opposing ideologies leads to one thing, - health care reform. Quite frankly, no one is whining at the thought of universal health coverage, for a lack of its noble intent. The problem is that like any idea with a business edge to it, an extension to people who otherwise would be unable to pay for the program, implies that some one else will be ‘hit’ with the bill. Call me delirious, but that is where the bone of contention started in the first place. If you seriously doubt my argument, ask Hillary Clinton why her agenda failed completely during the Bill Clinton years.
All the talk of choice of doctors, insurance companies and bureaucratic gibberish is one that skirts the real issue.
Ultimately overhauling the entire healthcare system will involve stepping on a bunch of toes, and dipping into a bunch of pockets. Does health care translate into economic impacts both short and long term? Of course, but that is like trying to explain how depreciation and inflation will affect the futures contract on Wall Street. No one cares, the rich wants to get richer, the poor are wondering where the help will come from, and the government is stuck in the middle of the mess.
Reducing costs and increasing efficiency makes business sense if you are running for Congress in 2010, but there is no insurance company losing sleep over the rising costs of Tylenol and Aleve. Try showing up at your doctor’s office with anything that looks like a headache; after the hundred tests and fifty CAT scans, you come home $100, 000 in debt. It is for that reason alone that I don’t weep for doctors regarding malpractice lawsuits. So the propensity for any successful healthcare system is a crapshoot, no surprise there. So is Immigration, Federal Reserve, CIA, Foreign Policy, FEMA, Wall Street and just about anything that comes to mind. We live in interesting times, and the fact that half the country could fall sick today and have no idea where to turn, is more sad than it is interesting.

So maybe all of us are not sick, that’s the good news. The bad news, undeniably so, is that healthcare system in this country is as sick as a dog, and the even sad part of it is that we will rather see our next door neighbor die than lose a dollar. Healthcare is one of those topics that make me miss England’s cradle-to-the grave national insurance, and that is coming from someone who has a hard time missing anything, and anyone, of course except MH.
The sticky part of this healthcare conversation has something to do with ‘pre-existing conditions’. That is actually one of the magic phrases in this debate, when insurance providers deny coverage for pre-existing conditions.
For the record, I am not at all against a government funded health insurance program for people who cannot afford it. I have personally read through the Humana mumbo jumbo once or twice, and I can’t even begin to tell you how many times I have had to opt for taking my chances. If President Obama can come up with a win-win scenario for many people who are too broke to pay for health insurance, more power to him.
It is sad that a country as powerful and sophisticated like the United States will have to choose between healthcare and paying our mortgages, but such is the reality of the times. It’s all about one thing, the Benjamin Franklins.

Iran on the clock. . .

I have no particular interest in either side of the Iranian elections. However, I have a funny feeling that many people around the world are rooting for anyone, but Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The ‘why’ is mostly a no brainer, but I don’t want to join the eternal optimists who believe that Iran minus Ahmadinejad equals utopia. That would be almost naïve, but that is coming from someone who has no inside scoop whatsoever. I have my personal issues with Ahmadinejad based on his inconsiderate comments on some of the undeniable facts of history, but I have never taken the time to scrutinize his competition, needless is it to say I have no opinion of them in that regard.
Believe it or not, the very fact that Ahmadinejad is supposedly in the lead is an indication that there are many people in Iran who are not ready to put him on the chopping block, whatever his shortcomings. I know this is utterly presumptuous on my part to say this, but the outcome of the elections matter to the rest of the world, perhaps more than even the Iranians themselves. The tricky part then, is that our concern is more personal than ideological.
One crucial (interestingly so) factor is that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say in all the country's most important affairs state, and his endorsement could sway the elections in either direction. Iran is ruled under a system known as Velayat-e Faqih, or "Rule by the Supreme Jurist", who is currently Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. According to what I’m just finding out (thank God for smart friends), it was adopted by an overwhelming majority in 1979 following the Islamic revolution which overthrew the autocratic Western-backed Shah. Needless to say the Iranian election story is no cut and dry formula. You get my drift.
What I don’t know for a fact is the extent of real democratic ideals in Tehran. All cynicism aside, here we are in the United States with the most sophisticated systems and technology to oversee elections, and we still see some of the creepiest and whackiest things happen. How can I assume that Iran will see anything close to free and fair elections simply because the world is eagerly watching? And I mean ‘eager-ly’.

Iran’s economy is in all kinds of bad shape, and fair to assert that if any contentious issue will kick Ahmadinejad out office, that has a much better chance to do so than the nuclear missile mess he drowns himself in. Of course, there are millions of people who care about the nuclear missile issue, who can care less whether the Iranian people eat once or twice a month. Unfortunately that is exactly what makes people like Ahmadinejad appealing to some people.
Either way, the next few hours could mark the beginning of some uncertain times in Iran and the Middle East (by extension the rest of the world), or be a lot more of the same.
I know I said I don’t care what happens in Iran, trust me, I do, and if I had a vote in the matter, you can bet it won’t be for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Nothing personal.
Just a random thought.

Sanctioning the Callous

It’s one thing to impose sanctions, and an entirely different ballgame to hope it works. I know my heading is biased to begin with, but in this is one of the few stories I chose a side long before I thought about blogging it.
In the weeks leading up to North Korea’s recent missile launch, every country (almost every country) expressed their displeasure, but it went ahead anyway. I know I’m the last person to school anyone of foreign policy, but something tells me North Korea don’t give a rats-u-know-what to what anyone thinks.
One of the most important stories yesterday (of course besides Carrie Prejean’s dethrone as Miss California) is the newest chapter in international efforts to bring North Korea into submission. If you haven’t been on another planet in the past two months, you will recall that North Korea did in fact proceed with its nuclear missile testing, against a somewhat unanimous global opposition. The United Nation’s biggest hurdle in the face off this tension is to present a united front on one of the most explosive issues of our time. There are some pragmatic students of foreign diplomacy who will be quick to remind you that if sanctions were the answer to everything, there won’t be any place like Darfur, Kosovo and Pyongyang.
So North Korea violated the 1718 resolutions with its attempt to place a satellite in orbit, a far cry from its initial agreement in 2005 to give up its nuclear program. That is why the UN is on the drawing boards trying to find a way through this muddy terrain. One of the subtle points in this story is how every country is forcing its agenda under the bilateral United Nations agenda to avert a direct confrontation with North Korea. Somewhere in the details (where the devil lives), I bet there is another subtle message strategically designed for Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, because a failure to clamp down on north Korea will set in motion a domino effect of callous nations who still have some lofty ambitions of stockpiling ballistic missiles.

The only response North Korea came up with is that it will use nuclear weapons in a "merciless offensive" if provoked. I know I am easily spooked, but if the threat of nuclear annihilation from an indifferent Kim Jon Il don’t scare your pants off, you should be running for mayor in Monterrey, Mexico. That spells all kinds of scary and it sure doesn’t strike me like a country perturbed by international sanctions.
Of course I know people who are pulling up archives from Libya, to suggest that if the United States could pressure Muammar Ghadaffi into submission, the UN can pull this off with no problem. Well, not so fast.
Diplomacy might be the best way forward, but that is assuming that Kim Jon Il is smitten by the same Obama mystique that caught the rest of the world off guard. On second thought, maybe diplomacy is the only feasible way forward largely because all other avenues have been explored (military included), and haven’t turned out too well.
What do I know?

Dollars and Danger

Over 80% of Nigeria’s foreign investment and government revenue revolves around its oil deposits, except that the country still has a long way to go on the corruption front. The irony about Nigeria’s oil reserves is that it produces oil to keep the rest of the world bright, while it stays pitch black half of the time. That is the apparent microcosm of the African economic problem, riddled with a mountain of tragic storylines that kills every investment potential.
BUT don’t forget that Africa possesses raw materials and natural resources out of the wazoo. We are talking about an area three times the size of the United States, and sells more oil to the United States and China than do the oil-rich nations of the Middle East. So will Investment in Africa ever make sense? Absolutely, but anyone can stroll in a land filled with landmines, at your own risk of course. The continent as a whole is a long way to go in ensuring economic stability and reliable governance, two key factors foreign investors pay attention to. I am all for giving everyone a ‘fair shake’, suffice is it to ask at what point does the asinine stereotypes about Africa give way to a pragmatic evaluation of the continent’s economic potential? CNBC presents a fascinating program tonight, “Dollars and Danger” to answer a fraction of these intriguing questions. I may verywell be putting the cart before the horse, but Africa may very well be the ‘final investing frontier’, and just in case you don’t buy it, ask the Chinese.
For so long, the images which dominate the headlines about Africa have been the same ‘whack’ 1970’s documentary with half naked women roaming through the streets, the late night infomercials for ‘Feed the Children’, to the scary images from Leonardo Di Caprio’s “Blood Diamond”. There is also the chilling pictures from ‘Hotel Rwanda’, and just when you are about to dismiss all of them for Hollywood propaganda, presidents Omar al Bashir (Sudan) and Robert Mugabe (Zimbabwe) gives you a good reason to doubt the criticism. The point is that some of the bad press that Africa has earned is not completely unfounded, and that is precisely what makes pitching the continent a tough sell.
All that said, so much of Africa is unfallowed territory. Any developing country is fertile ground for infrastructure and unthinkable returns on investment. Now that makes business sense. Assuming the complex underlying drama from culture, religion, status quo to social responsibility could be circumvented, the fact that the continent’s rate of stability has jumped dramatically since the late 1990’s should count for something. Serious investors know something the rest of may never find out, and maybe CNBC may clue the rest of the world in on it. Either way this is a fascinating must-see TV.

“Dollars and Danger” on CNBC June 10th at 9PM and 1AM

Le Champion

French Open 2009 saw history take shape this morning with another man joining the tennis elite, the five other players who have won all 4 Grand Slams. I don’t know if Roger Federer’s emotions were at an all time high today because it’s been four years of watching Rafa Nadal steal his glory on clay. In pursuit of record-tying 14th career Grand Slam title, Robin Soderling didn’t come to be a spectator.
Down to the final set, keeping his emotions in check for the last set must have been the most difficult thing to pull off, but Federer did. Many years ago, I was charmed by his calm posture under pressure, and his poise in dismantling some of the most stubborn opponents from Djokovich to my favorite, Bagdatis. Today’s win cements him in the record books with some o the greatest tennis players of all time, but fair to say that Roger is on his way to be arguably the best tennis player of our generation. Of course it is a thought that the absence of Nadal made Federer’s win a lot less dramatic, but Robin Soderling didn’t just fall out of the sky (he sent Nadal home in the fourth round).
With Roland Garros, Federer will stash the French Open title in the same place he keeps his five each from Wimbledon and the U.S. Open and three from the Australian Open. I can only imagine the sigh of relief, being a dominant player everywhere else except in France.
We have witnessed great players over the years, but Federer is on pace to be the greatest-of-all time, assuming he isn’t now.

An Inconvenient Affair

Anytime I think of the United States – China relationship, the only thing you can imagine is a scandal which everyone seems to have turned a blind eye to. Everyone pretends the affair doesn’t exist in the hopes that both parties will rectify what is wrong in their own lives; thereby not making all of us innocent bystanders appear so scandalous.
Of course we on this side of the street have successfully bashed the Chinese for anything ranging from currency manipulation, mad cow disease to every human right violation in the book. The other side of the story for the Chinese has a lot to do with United States’ never-ending credit scenario (which is not too bad depending on how you look at it) but most importantly its meddling in Chinese international and domestic affairs.

It is a relationship neither side wants to break up, but both acknowledge that neither can survive on their own. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was busy this week convincing the Chinese that the US will not evaporate from the universe anytime soon, thus continue to bankroll its expenditure until it no longer can afford. Just in case you haven’t been paying attention, there is a good reason why United States is very careful with political and economic rhetoric when it comes to China. Case in point, the rest of the world was so busy piling heat on China during the Olympic Games while George Bush and Vladmir Putin were sipping pina colada at a beach volleyball game in Beijing.
The trickiest part of this affair is that all of us are intimately connected to it, much like it works in second hand smoking. China’s trade agreements and balances affects just about everyone on the planet, and its perpetual financing of US debts means it is keeping the global economy afloat.
This is a puzzle I don’t know the answer to, but the more I think of the Chinese influence in every aspect of our economic lives, the longer I scratch my head knowing that I am product of this fragile union, an inconvenient marriage that is.

20 Years Later. . .

Just like that, twenty years have rolled by. I will hate to pretend that I have any recollection of where I was in 1989, the day when the Chinese government made history with a bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Tiananmen Square. Thanks to the worldwide web and my history teacher (who I never took seriously anyway), we know about a moment in history where people put their lives on the line for something they believed in. The name Tiananmen has become synonymous to an opposition to democracy, and for some reason it appears not too far from the truth.
Even if your point of reference starts with the recent Olympic protests and the consequent PR backlash, not much has changed in 2009. The Chinese government is adamant to keep any images or live coverage from China for the rest of us to see how much different life is, and a glimpse into what the future holds for politics and domestic policy. Of course the fact that every country in the world will soon be taking instructions from the Chinese is enough to cause the world to shut up, and only bark from a distance.
20 years ago, there was no Twitter, Facebook and certainly no UTube, else we wouldn’t have to wait for mainstream media to share their inside scoop with us (which sometimes isn’t much). What we know from the history books and eyewitness accounts authenticate the fact that Communist china has no intentions of switching to Western style democracy anytime soon.
Frankly speaking, I am in no position to tell anyone how to live their lives, but I am sure that most people will agree that irrespective of the kind of political institution the Chinese chooses to follow, there is no room in any playbook for violent crackdowns and human rights abuses. Am I glad I am not in China? Heck yeah. If I was in Beijing, I won’t be sitting here blogging about the first thing that rolls on my mind, but I guess a part of my blogging rights is because I’m not working overtime to tick anyone off. The Tiananmen Square memory is a glaring reminder that dissent (any version of it) is not looked upon nicely in China. Regardless of how many of us would want to see the rest of the world live in the kind freedom we enjoy (and take for granted), it is not one of those things you can impose on any country.
If China’s government had its own way, June 4 wont exist on the calendars altogether, and people’s memory would be just as sharp as a cheeseburger. The sad part of the story (of course according to my biased assessment) is that the Chinese government fails to recognize any wrong doing twenty years ago. Of course, that stance alone begs the question, why clamp down on information if you haven’t done anything wrong? Well, that was meant to be a rhetoric question.
In the final analysis, it may take a generation (or two) to see the ideals of democracy find its way into the hearts of the hard-line Chinese, but perhaps today will be a reminder that “time may heal all wounds, but never dulls memory”. (PS: that is an original quote by the way).

Remember where you are today, because in another 20 years, you may need to tell your children how some Chinese student sacrificed their lives in pursuit of democracy and freedom.
Another random thought.

The Art of Mending Fences

President Barack Obama is not Napoleon Bonaparte, and certainly we are a long way from 200 years ago since a world leader attempted to bridge the fragile divide between the Western and Muslim worlds. Erroneously, too many people equate our side of the street (the West that is) as anti-Islamic, anything from our touting democratic institutions, to the young girls in bikinis roaming the streets in any city you can think of. The divide is certainly cultural, but you will be hard pressed to find one person who can accurately distinguish between the cultural and ideological differences. For that reason, the reputation of Western nations in Muslim countries hasn’t been the best. And just before you dump all the blame on former president Bush, the mess was created long before he showed up.
The point here is, how we got into the rift is no so much the important story as how we get out of it. Yes I am a strong proponent of identifying the source of any problem, only then do you assess the best course of action for a resolution. This problem is slightly different, mostly a chicken and the egg scenario, with no side claiming the blame as the instigator.

(Enter Barack Obama)
Tomorrow morning the President will speak at Cairo University in Egypt, but you can bet that his intended audience will be far more than the hundreds of people who will remember the day as the turning point in intercultural relations. Of course every Muslim will take a moment to hear what the leader of the free world has to say, in a highly anticipated speech. No chances for error. It wouldn’t take rocket science to guess that President Obama will be careful to walk a fine line between cajoling and pandering. Too much sweet talk will aggravate half of the world, certainly Israel and the many people around the world who still think that somehow the world can move on without international harmony. Of course, his very presence in Egypt and his intent speaks volumes without him uttering a word. All he has to do is to put the finishing touches to what he began several months ago when he granted his first interview to a Muslim TV network.

Don’t be deceived by the apparent reception however. President Obama will get his usual standing ovations, mostly from people who can’t tell the difference between him and Michael Jackson, Bruce Springsteen or any other rock star. The task of ‘mending fences’ entails a little more than stopping by Home Depot on this one.
The post 9/11 anti-American sentiment (apparently stemming out of the Iraq blunder), the Afghanistan drama, Pakistan deadlock, not to mention the Guantanamo Bay and Abu Ghraib scandals , are all lingering issues waiting to be addressed head-on. Even more gripping will be any word (or words) that potentially insinuate his stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Ultimately Obama promised to restore America’s image around the world, and I think so far he has showed the world that he meant what he said. The very fact that his story is unique makes him less suspicious. Let’s face it, no one in Egypt will be jumping around the block for Obama if his rock star image didn’t ignite the Europeans at the G20 Summit. You clearly recall that going into the summit, Angela Merkel (Germany) and Nicolas Sarkozy (France) swore up and down that they would not budge to the Obama’s mystique. Two days later they signed over their country’s budget to him.
I am not suggesting that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Iran) will be softening his nuclear stance anytime after tomorrow, but maybe the Obama game plan is to turn enough of the Middle East and Muslim world into moderate pragmatic citizens, so much that they will in turn shun the antics and divisive tactics of people like Ahmadinejad.
I know you are dying to tell me that ‘talk is cheap’. Yes I know, but if it was so cheap why didn’t anyone else try it before Obama.
Give credit where credit is due and let Obama continue on his cleanup campaign. I am neither Republican nor Democrat, but in the interest of national security if Obama can reach the quasi-Bin Laden wannabes who are confused and misdirected by showing respect and telling them the truth, I say more power to him. You will be naïve (even stupid if I can be blunt) to assume that President Obama will roll into Egypt and stun them, walk out and everything will be kosher. If it was that simple, Napoleon Bonaparte would have pulled it off.

I am tired of the deduction that by Obama not stopping in Israel on his trip, we should be reading into it as a clandestine move to sideline Israel. Give me a break. Why can’t the rest of us clueless bunch just take life for what it is and instead of making something out of nothing? The last time Obama was in Israel, he didn’t make a stop in Egypt, no where in Africa or Asia, I didn’t hear anyone bugging.Showing respect to the Muslim world does not in any way translate into dissing Israel.
Get a grip.
Back my point (before I deviated), Obama has one chance to pull this off. This is a foreign policy ‘Game 7’ for him, with over 1.5 billion Muslims paying attention; he either win their hearts or lose it forever. Mending fences will start with telling the truth, with respect and unequivocably. All Obama can do is build his side of the fence, and wait to the Muslim world to extend the courtesy by returning the favor. There is this popular sentiment that the Arab world is largely anti-Bush, thus the assumption that all President Obama needs to do is to stand tall, look pretty and smile. I think it will take a lot more than that, but either way, the first step to any conflict resolution is jumpstarting the dialogue. That is precisely what Obama will do in the next few hours.
Just a random thought, anyway.

Flight 447

Today is one of those days when you don’t really know what to tell someone who lost a loved one, or still in shock of a disaster. In both France and Brazil (mostly the former), some families will go to bed tonight unsure of where their loved ones are. The uncertainty and anguish is one that no words can describe, and they will love nothing more than closure. Air France jet Flight 447 disappeared yesterday somewhere into the Atlantic Ocean and more than 24 hours later, there are no signs of life, only signals and intelligent guesswork.
The news is not pleasant whichever way you slice it, but for the families of the 228 people traveling from Rio de Janeiro to Paris, they can at least begin the grieving process and attempt to move on with their lives. A jet flying at 35,000 feet and at 521 mph, losing pressure (possibly), and plunging into the Atlantic Ocean is not even in image you want to see even in a Harrison Ford movie, much less anywhere in real life.
The last thing I know about this disaster, (which is not much) is that two debris fields have been found hundreds of miles east of the plane's expected flight path, but that is good information only for speculation. It is entirely possible also that the currents could have washed the debris (assuming it has anything to do with Flight 447) several miles the crash point.
In the absence of any conclusive reports on this tragedy, I will do what mainstream media will never learn to do, - refuse to speculate. On behalf of the Random Thoughts network and a global community who share the pain of our friends both far and near, our collective hearts go to the families and loved ones, for whom today is one of the darkest of their lives.

GM: A Drive of a Lifetime

The very fact that GM declared bankruptcy this morning and the Dow surged 229 points, (or 2.6 percent) means one of two things, or even both. First, it could be that we have come to the point in economic globalization where a collapse of one of the constituent parts does not necessarily send the rest of the structure crumbling. That could be the case, and if so, no one can argue that the Chrysler/ FIAT merger haven’t given us a new template in high powered mergers and acquisitions.
The other possibility (the painful one that most of us will pray it isn’t so) is that General Motors became obsolete a long time ago, and the quintessential American thing to do is to throw money at it and pretend the problem will go away. That possibility is not a nice one, not my personal favorite of the two, but of course it’s a real one. It is no secret that the foreign manufacturers have taken over and in fact led the way in technological advances to much of our dismay. It is as if General Motors’ game plan never went beyond Flint, Michigan, especially in an ever changing world when you know that the day of reckoning will eventually show up.
So, on this bright and beautiful Monday morning, General Motors filed for bankruptcy protection. Two months ago, anyone would have suggested that no way GM will bail out with a Chapter 11.
The tricky fact is that when it comes to the economic timeline, two months is eternity. The fact that Chrysler threw itself under the bus, and is still surviving, is enough impetus for President Obama and just about any level headed American to suggest that GM follow their lead. Of course, GM is a whole different beast because of its international entanglements. A beasts is a beast nonetheless, and the American taxpayer wasn’t going to foot a bill to an investment it has absolutely no idea on how it will recoup its investment. So this morning, the Dow Jones Industrial dropped GM off the list. Shocker! After 8 decades of business, not in my wildest imaginations did I see that coming. Nothing spells ‘changing times’ than United Auto Workers’ union eager to make concessions after concessions to save American jobs. Of course even if GM’s top guys show up next month and tout some funky numbers at the rest of us clueless bunch, we know that it will take a long time for them to completely emerge from the bankruptcy’s impact. The Obama government will ‘pour’ an additional $30 billion into GM to fund operations during its reorganization. Pouring sounds like the perfect word here, because that is a 60 percent stake that we may never see again (worse case scenario).
I hate to sound like the end–of-days prophet on television so I have to add that there were some good signs also . . . The fact that the governments of Canada and Germany (according to Obama’s press conference this morning) are chipping in some cash to relieve the pain seems to suggest that the recent global crisis has taught us all a valuable lesson; that which affects one, affects us all. Well, back in 1908 (somewhere in that vicinity) GM said it was the cornerstone of America’s success and it may have been true for the past 8 decades. Pardon my cynicism, I think the world is changed a lot since 1908, and America too. All of us would have been wailing today if the GM bankruptcy sent the Dow 229 points the other direction. The point here is, be thankful the recession happened when it did, and at least for Obama’s lucky breaks (I know republicans will chew my neck off if I dare say Obama’s ingenuity and guts)

Pontiac, Saturn, Hummer and Saab brands are gone bye-bye. Pontiac and Saturn’s, well I can live without them. Hummer, I thought that car was completely useless and borderline idiotic. Saab, I like Saab. The next year will see more job losses and dealerships shutting down, but we can only hope that the collapse of GM (to some degree) would imply a resurrection of another, probably Ford, to absorb the heat. After all this is a God-believing country where we say when one door closes, another opens. GM just shut a bunch of its doors, and only time will tell what happens next. Of course this is the one instance that even the anti-God folks will let me slide with this thought. That is another story for another day. So there is the pain for workers, the drama for the 650,000 retirees and their family members who depend on the company for health insurance and many more suppliers down the line goes on.
Now what?
The endgame is that GM Emerges leaner and meaner (better that is). The new GM will have only Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC and Buick. Honestly, I can do without the Buick and the corny Tiger Woods commercials also. The new GM will have only $17 billion in debt, which is much better than $54.4 billion it owed as of March 31. So you see, its not all bad news.
Where it goes from here is a story that no one knows the ending yet. What we know for a fact is that once upon a time, where GM went, America went. The times has certainly changed and that probably is a memo to every business corporation in America (as well as all my rich buddies) that the idea or longevity and staying power is not as sexy as it used to be a century ago.