This is either a good propaganda scheme, or an interesting fact finding mission. Either way, American geophysicist M. King Hubert will be itching to read this headline,-“US gas and oil reserves greater than believed.” Assuming this is true [I have no reason to doubt that it is], it is at best a welcomed short term sigh of relief for society that is incredibly dependent on oil and gas reserves, and production. Short term, because it will be extremely premature to assume we are off the hook yet. As you will recall, in his 1956 paper, Hubbert outlined scenarios and predictions that the US oil production would peak in 1970.
40 years later, any research to prove Hubbert wrong makes for an interesting headline, but lest we forget, the world population, global demand and other external factors of demand are not “held constant.”
Shale gas is labeled the next frontier and the saving grace for global energy demand, and despite the environmental concerns, it is possible that experts like Hubbert didn’t anticipate the contributions of such formations and deposits. The interesting twist however is that shale gas development is fighting it s own battles with hydraulic fracturing and supposed impacts on water tables [still a heavily debatable argument].
I have never been interested in arguing Peak Oil theory [I still don’t] simply because it’s only logical for the production of any product from finite natural resources to have a peak level. Whether or not there are one or more peaks due to technological advancements, or in the case of oil and gas, enhanced recovery methods and additional reserves, doesn’t change the fact that finite resources will not exist infinitely.
Furthermore, I have no way to knowing OPEC’s unadjusted data for oil and gas reserves; none of us do. All we have is enough information to speculate. The IEA have repeatedly warned of changing global consumption patterns, as a critical driver to any potential energy emergency. There is ample reason to believe that Canada’s oil sands deposits, the Arctic region, and the US Gulf will have enough supplies to save sleepless nights in the US. In much the same way, deposits along West Africa, North Sea and South China Sea might very well help avert any impending disaster, as predicted by Hubbert’s Peak Oil crisis. So I am optimistic [cautiously so] on many levels.
Just before we start the celebration for “limitless oil supply”, I go back to my favorite reminder, -once upon a time scientist told us the world was flat, and we believed that too.
My point, - global energy demands will continue to tilt the supply curve, especially in a world of drastic unforeseen contingencies like natural disasters and man-made uncertainties. For that reason alone, we might be well served to stick to judicious use of supply, aggressive research and production strategies, and non-restrictive energy sector regulations [assuming the Peak Oil theory is still on track].
Of course we can do our best to minimize the impact on the demand side of the curve, but be wary of headlines that can slip the US and global society into “cruise control,” instead of committing to additional technologies, environmental initiatives, and other incentives to affect the supply side of the same curve.
Just a thought.
