Last Man Standing . . . sort of

Anytime I watch the Republican presidential debate, or listen to the bickering that has turned into a media spectacle, I can’t help but wonder what any of the 4 remaining contenders will say to sway Americans against Obama in November.

Even among Republicans, you can imagine the tune that runs through many minds is the band U2’s hit song “I still haven’t found what I m looking for.”

Sooner or later, the Party will have to pick one of the “final 4”, and inasmuch many yearned for a more charismatic candidate, the Republican party will have to stick with the field it has been dealt. Chris Christie may have been a relatively pragmatic straight-shooter to mount a formidable campaign against the Obama machine, but many hard-line Republicans didn’t jump on the Christie train because he was a bit too moderate for their liking. Along the same lines however, Romney may be a bit “too rich” for some independents voters to connect with, and too stiff for Republicans, especially going toe-to-toe with an Obama who sings Al Green songs at White House press conferences. So Mitt Romney, as skillful and smart as he is [no denying that] still have to battle the stigma of being too out-of-touch for many independent voters.  

Ron Paul is Ron Paul. He will oppose everything and want freedom for everything. He is like the uncle you stopped inviting to family events because you know he will be there regardless, - no invitation necessary. And while he is there, he will speak his mind, even if no one is listening. Young people admire him because he gets their disdain for politics, although not enough to win their vote. Veterans adore him, although they know it will take more than social awareness campaign of the veteran plight to affect real policies.

Enter Rick Santorum, Most people have no clue who he is, and that is not a sentiment you change in 9 months to become president of the USA. Many are floating the idea that he is still in the race to ensure Gingrich doesn’t make a last minute game changer.

If Gingrich wins, the Obama guys will be pulling out the same blueprint that wiped out John McCain in 2008. We all know how that turned out for the old guy, the Washington insider, and the lifetime politician. Lest we forget, Gingrich is too unpredictable for Tea Party contingent.

One thing we know for certain is that the GOP will have to nominate and support a candidate sooner than later, and a win for Mitt Romney may be the end of a carousel that saw memorable moments like Herman Cain’s 999 policy, Rick Perry’s memory lapses, and Michele Bachman’s quest to be the second coming of Sarah Palin.

I have a feeling the Republican debates and war of words will drag on for a few more weeks, all of which gives President Obama more time to align the stars. So far, the president has sat back and enjoyed the ride; watched Republicans air their dirty laundry against each other. More importantly, he has enjoyed the added benefit if refining his answers for “failed promises” and an economic upturn just in time.

Tomorrow’s primary election Florida could be a game changer for all candidates, but if the outcome is as unpredictable as any of my buddy Herman Cain’s predictions, America will be in for a long election ride. Republicans on the other hand may be left grooving to John Mayer’s hit “Slow Dancing in a Burning Room.”

The Cost of Iran Oil Embargo

Sooner or later Iran will get the memo. President Ahmadinejad is bent on holding his ground in the face of a myriad of international sanctions being lashed out at the Middle Eastern country.  It often doesn’t take much for even the most hard-line leaders to feel the pinch of an embargo.

The only twist here is that Iran is betting on a potential global oil crisis as the deterrent to any real international pressure. Furthermore, from Iran’s point of view, demand for oil will exist elsewhere [Asia]; hence any shortfalls from US and EU will be offset by Asia’s growing demand.

For starters, oil prices rose above $110 right after the European Union jumped on the “sanction train” against Iran. The United States already stated its position on grinding Iran into submission, and at least the Obama administration is making it a priority to reduce America’s reliance on foreign oil supply. Shale gas and natural gas will fill some of the void – understandably so - but unless there is a real energy game changer like the Keystone XL (currently wrangling through a political tug of war),  countries like Iran will always have a voice in the matter.

The EU stance was critical especially since it is Iran's second-largest oil customer after China. However, the Chinese march to an entirely different tune, and so no one should be counting on them to abandon Iran anytime in this century.

For all the reasons above, we can expect the impact of the restrictions and embargo to affect market forces, with basic demand and supply curves shifting towards countries that can bear bilateral pressure, and for those whose economy cannot afford a reduction in oil supply.

Lest we forget, Iran is very aware of its key chess piece in this drama, - the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, it threatened to disrupt the activities of strategically important strait between the Gulf of Oman in and the Persian Gulf.  It is the only sea route for large petroleum-exporting tankers and a potential choke point the world cannot afford.

At the end of the day, it helps to focus on the big picture, and to know that the world is at a point of painful tradeoffs. No easy options.  My point, - there is an old adage “when elephant go to war, it is the grass that suffers the most.” The rest of the world might feel the pinch at the gas pump soon enough, but will averting a nuclear drama from an unpredictable Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be enough of a consolation prize?